Baidu revisited

I didn’t think I would revisit the subject of Baidu so soon, but after Baidu.com skyrocketed 354% in its first day of trading on the NASDAQ, I knew I had to write about it tonight.  Most of the World Adventurers blog visitors this week seem to want to know what I have to say about Baidu, so I just had to write something about it.  For those tired of reading about financial topics, I promise to write about another subject tomorrow.
 
In case you’re wondering whether you should still buy Baidu, I want to let you know that think it would be crazy for you to buy shares of Baidu at $122.54 per share.  I reiterate that I would not pay more than $25/share for share this company, no matter how explosive demand appears to be.  If your heart was set on buying shares of a Chinese Internet play, then check out Baidu’s main competitors, Sina.com and Sohu.com.  Their multiples are much more reasonable than Baidu’s.  Baidu’s astronomical share price primarily reflects two unproven assumptions:  1) Google will eventually buy out Baidu; and 2) Baidu will be the next Google.  Neither assumption is necessarily true.  Right now, there is just too much risk involved in buying Baidu shares.  Yesterday shares of Baidu.com topped out at $151.21 in mid-day trading and ended the day much lower.  Suckers who bought shares at $151 are likely wondering now why that bought into the hype and bought so high.  I’m positive that the price will drop over the next few weeks as the hype subsides, perhaps by as much as 50%.  Baidu.com’s first day share price gain was the 18th highest in history, and it was the hottest foreign IPO in history.  That is an amazing achievement for a company with just $15 million in revenues.  Considering that the 17 other hotter IPOs occurred during the dot.com boom era, and Baidu far outclassed Google in its debut, its achievement is even more noteworthy.  At the same time, it’s important to remember that this is no longer the dot.com era, when share prices of Internet companies floated into the stratosphere.  In this brave new post-dot.com era, share prices are much more firmly anchored to business fundamentals.  One bad earnings announcement will deflate Baidu’s share price fast as quickly as it was inflated by hype.
 
As for me, I did not buy any shares of Baidu because I kept my bid at $25/share.  Sometimes you win , sometimes you lose.  However, I am very happy to know that I was able to anticipate another winning initial public offering.  Baidu caught my eye weeks ago.  It’s just too bad that so many other investors anticipated it too.  I’ve been pretty successful at sifting through all the IPOs to find the gems.  I bought into Google and Morningstar, two great IPOs, and I passed on CryoCor, which is now hovering $3 below its IPO price.  I most certainly would have participated in the Baidu.com IPO if I had had the opportunity to do so.  However, Baidu participated in a traditional IPO led by its underwriters, Goldman Sachs and Credit Suisse First Boston.  As I have often mentioned, I am no fan of traditional IPOs.  Aside from enriching company executives, angel investors,  investment banks, lucky guests, and a few high net-worth individuals, traditional IPOs rarely benefit the average investor.  They don’t benefit the company, either.  The company sells shares at an intial price, in this case $27 per share.  When Baidu’s share price skyrocketed to $121.22, the only ones who benefitted were those individuals fortunate enough to be allocated shares.  That is why I am a firm believer in Dutch auction IPOs, which allows all investors an equal opportunity to bid on shares, and the price more accurately reflects demand, giving participating companies a fairer price for their shares.  Traditional IPOs are very elitists, while Dutch auction IPOs are much more democratic.
 
If you want to participate in IPOs, remember that they are inherently volatile and are prone to underperform.  Most companies’ share prices dip below the initial price after going public.  Thus, you need to be diligent and know a company’s prospects, weighing the risks with the benefits when considering whether to buy on the first day of trading.  It is often better to wait and see how the stock performs, such as I did with DreamWorks Animation and Cogent Technologies (I bought DWA three weeks after IPO, Cogent seven months afterward).  Because it is very difficult to receive an allocation of shares in a traditional IPO, you will have to buy on the first day of trading.  Bid low at first, wait until you assess the price at opening, and determine whether you can stomach buying at a much higher price, then up your bid price.  If the price hovers around the initial price, or if it dips below the opening price soon after trading begins, then don’t bid at all.  Wait.  A hot IPO is hot from the get go; lukewarm IPOs have very little upward price momentum.  If you want to participate in an initial public offering, open a brokerage account with a broker such as E*Trade that participates in IPOs, or open an account with W.R. Hambrecht.  Hambrecht has a stellar Dutch auction IPO program called "OpenIPO."  I have an account with Hambrecht and have been very pleased with the results.  Not every IPO is promising, so be patient.  At present, I am keeping my eye on only one upcoming IPO–Tim Hortons.  If I see any other promising IPOs, I will let you know.
 
The market is so fickle!  The economy added 207,000 new jobs last month, 20,000 more than expected.  That sparked fears that the Federal Reserve would continue to raise interest rates, sending U.S. stocks lower on Friday.  Job creation has generally lagged expectations since 2002, and each month the markets punish investors when the job numbers come in lower than expected because of fears of a weak economy.  Now they’re too high.  You can’t win!  C’mon, investors.  Wise up.  I for one am glad to see more jobs created, even if the Federal Reserves continue to raise rates.  Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan has said as much.  The market needs to accept the fact that oil will continue to be $60+ a barrel for the foreseeable future and that the Fed will continue to raise interest rates.

On mergers, acquisitions, and other nonsuch

Tonight, I thought I would pepper a thoroughly boring discussion on mergers and acquisitions with a spig of my political philosophy.  If you doze off tonight or quit reading part way through my blog entry tonight, I won’t blame you one bit.  Who knows, maybe I can even make it interesting to read (let me know if I do).  I’ll end with a few, hopefully more interesting tidbits from today.  I was debating about what to write tonight, and this topic rose to the top of the heap.  Maybe it will be more interesting than my riveting future entry on why I’m disappointed with Major League Baseball.  I will defer that blog topic to another night because I wrote about the Olympics yesterday.
 
I thought of the topic of mergers and acquisitions (M&A) when I read about two multinatiional corporate acquisitions, one of which has already been scrapped.  Last month, CNOOC, a Chinese, state-run petroleum company based in Hong Kong, announced that it bid to acquire Unocal, a U.S.-based petroleum company.  Today, German-based adidas, the athletic shoe and apparel maker, announced plans to acquire Reebok, a U.S.-based petroleum company.  CNOOC faced an immense amount of political opposition to its plans to acquire Unocal for two primary reasons:  1) Its majority owner is the Government of the People’s Republic of China; and 2) U.S. gas prices are sky high, and many feared that the Unocal acquisition would benefit China at the expense of the U.S. (Right now, petroleum really is a zero-sum game.)  Yesterday, CNOOC withdrew its bid for Unocal, and U.S.-based ChevronTexaco will now likely acquire Unocal.  CNOOC cited the fact that its acquistion would not pass U.S. regulatory scrutiny as the primary reason why it withdrew its bid.  Now adidas, the world’s second largest athletic apparel company, has bid for #3 Reebok.  It will also face anti-trust scrutiny, because its acquisition of Reebok could foster a Nike and adidas-Reebok duopoly.  I think it will pass anti-trust scrutiny in both the European Union and the United States, especially since adidas spun off its Salomon sporting goods unit.  Is it fair that CNOOC’s bid failed while adidas’ will likely succeed?  Is it politically-motivated because CNOOC is Chinese and adidas is German, and because petroleum is considered a strategic commodity?  Yes, I suspect.
 
Was it wrong to prevent the Chinese from buying Unocal, while the Germans will likely prevail and buy Reebok?  I don’t believe so, and here’s why.  I have a very simple litmus test when it comes to whether I think an international merger and acquisition is fair.  I believe in a level playing field.  I think that if a foreign government has a substantial stake in the acquiring company (greater than 25%), then it gives that company an unfair advantage.  The playing field is skewed because that government is essentially the acquiring company’s largest shareholder, with very deep pockets to support and nurture that company.  It essentially pits one large shareholder, the foreign government, against private investors who have equity in the acquired company.  No doubt the company owned by a foreign government would be the stronger party in an acquisition.  Rarely do you see the reverse situation occur; that is, a private corporation buys a quasi-government-owned company.  Public corporations generally cannot purchase government-owned entities until they privatize.  I realize that all countries, including the U.S., have strategic interests they need to protect, and nations have a right to develop their economies with government assistance.  However, I firmly believe that quasi-government corporations need to privatize before they morph into multinational corporations and go on acquisition sprees.  To me, assessing whether a merger is fair should be based more on government ties than on where the company is headquartered or whether the industry is considered strategic.  The latter concerns are often the result of the fact that company is owned by a foreign government.
 
In the German case, adidas is a public corporation.  The German government does not have a sizable stake in adidas.  Therefore, adidas will buy Reebok without the German government’s backing.  If CNOOC purchased Unocal, it will have done so as a largely government-owned enterprise.  Likewise, Beijing-based Lenovo Computer, which has a much smaller percentage of government ownership, recently bought IBM’s PC division.  This is acceptable, in my opinon, because it meets the simple litmus test.  On the same note, DHL, a division German-based Deutsche Post, purchased U.S.-based Airborne Express.  Deutsche Post is Germany’s postal service.  It is unacceptable to me that DHL functions as a multinational corporation while its largest stakeholder is the German government.  This is akin to the U.S. Postal Service purchasing Federal Express using U.S. taxpayer dollars.  Another case in point–Deutsche Telekom is Germany’s national telephone provider.  T-Mobile is its mobile phone division.  A couple years ago, T-Mobile purchased U.S.-based VoiceStream Wireless.  European nations are notorious for supporting corporations through large equity stakes, and Germany and France are especially notorious for promoting corporate protectionism.  Most European companies have long since passed the point where they needed government support, yet European nations still champion quasi-government enterprises.  At the same time CNOOC bid for Unocal, Chinese-based Haier bid for Maytag, an appliance manufacturer.  Haier also withdrew its bid partly because of political pressure.  I do not know what percentage of Haier is owned by the Chinese government, but I believe it is much lower than CNOOC’s.  As a result, I would be more apt to support a Haier buyout of Maytag than a CNOOC buyout of Unocal.  No Chinese company should be discriminated against based on the fact that it is Chinese.  On the other hand, if the company’s largest shareholder is the Chinese Government or the People’s Liberation Army, then it should privatize before expanding globally.
 
OK, now for some tidbits from today.  Thanks for wading through my meandering blog entry.  Today was a fairly quiet day at work, a much welcomed change from the previous week.  I worked on wrapping up a few miscellaneous cases and spent some time working on my operations management project.  I butted heads with someone on the community association board about losing our single largest customer.  We lost substantial revenues, and this person essentially blew it off.  La de da.  Who cames if thousands and thousands of dollars just walked away from the table, right?  Forgive me for sounding harsh, but they just don’t get it.  They won’t be on the board much longer because they’re moving on to another place.  I’m mulling whether to run for the board chair position in September.  The board needs more direction.  I have to admit that I’m not as dynamic a leader as I could be, but right now what the board needs more than anything is direction and purpose.  There are still a couple of big personalities who tend to dominate the board.  I much prefer consensus.  One is a great asset, and I would hate to lose them, but they also need to understand that we all need to work together to make joint decisions. 
 
From the "Things that Make you Go Hmm" Department:  Tonight I went to the grocery store and stocked up on groceries.  I thought it funny that the grocery bagger kept saying, "Merry Christmas."  Apparently, that’s the only English phrase he knows.  Never mind that it’s only August!  The grocery checker confided in me that she is very tired of his incessant references to the Yuletide.  I told the bagger, "Happy New Year," and he laughed.  Apparently he knows at least two English phrases.  When he loaded the grocery bags in my car, I gave him a tip and told him, "Merry Christmas."  He laughed.  Perhaps he knows the secret to a happy life–treat every day like Christmas and you will always be merry.
 
Note to reader Dome Mountain:  Thanks for your words!  I took a look at your blog too.  That is quite the structure you are building.  I love doing handyman projects, but I don’t think I would have the resolve to do what you’re doing.  More power to you!  I built a retaining wall, shed, and deck on our house in Seattle a few years ago, and it took me a long time to finish.  Your task is nothing short of monumental.  Good luck!

Should you Baidu?

On August 5, Baidu.com will
list ADSs (American Depository Shares) on NASDAQ (symbol BIDU). 
Baidu, which means "100 levels" in Chinese, is China’s largest search
engine and the 7th most globally trafficked Web site.  Privately
Baidu will only float about 3.7 million shares and will IPO between $19
and $21 per share.  It is a highly anticipated public offering,
and it will likely IPO at $21/share and will rise quickly on the
first day of trading.  Because the underwriters are CSFB and
Goldman Sachs, it will be a traditional IPO.  Thus, average Joe’s
like myself will be locked out of this IPO opportunity (I am a strong
proponent of auction IPOs because traditional IPOs participants are
typically limited to institutions, high net-worth investors, and
special guests). 
 
I’ve been mulling over buying some shares at the outset, likely at
a higher price than the initial price of $19-$21.  This investment
is a very risky one, but there is a tremendous amount of potential
that Baidu will be a stellar buy.  First, the negatives.  If
Baidu.com’s ADRs list at $20 per share, the price-to-equity ratio for
BIDU shares will be 528.  This is far, far higher than the P-E
ratio for any major tech stock, including Google.  It is very
overvalued–on paper.  The question is whether a small,
market-leading company in the world’s fastest growing Internet market
will expand quickly, bringing down the P-E ratio.  Secondly,
Baidu.com is the search engine leader for China, beating out Sina.com
and Sohu.com, two other larger, older China Internet plays. 
It is very much like Google, with a spartan, no-frills interface. 
However, Google is quickly making inroads into China and is especially
popular among Chinese who speak foreign languages.  Google is the
800-pound Gorilla of search, and there’s a big risk that Baidu will
lose its place as the king of Chinese search.  Thirdly, the
Chinese Internet market is growing, but volatile both financially
and politically.  While Internet search in China is growing
by leaps and bounds, this nascent market is fraught with risk. 
It’s still unclear whether search will be a very profitable endeavor in
the Chinese market.
 
Now for the upside.  This IPO will be HOT.  For those
who missed out on the Google IPO, Baidu.com will be a second chance to
get in on the ground floor of the fast-growing Internet search
market.  Initial buyers will disregard the sky high P-E
ratio.  The question is–at what price is it savvy to buy shares,
and at what price is it foolish?  Secondly, Google owns 2.6% of
Baidu.com, indicating that global search leader Google highly
regards Baidu’s growth prospects.  It has been speculated
that Google will buy Baidu outright to quickly enter the
Chinese search market.  However, it’s also been noted that Google
may opt to go it alone, making Google a formidable competitor to
Baidu.  Also, Chairman & CEO Robin Li and others will
continue to own a large majority of shares after IPO.  I believe
it’s good when a company’s executives have their wealth tied
to their company, because they have a personal interest in their
company’s success.  Plus, they lock away shares, discouraging
share dilution.  Thirdly, at present it appears that Baidu’s
Internet search engine technology is superior in terms of handling
Chinese search.  Chinese characters are unicode, not ASCII. 
As a result, Google and other potential competitors must built of their
unicode search indexes.  In this respect, Baidu is at the
forefront and should dominate Chinese language search, at least in the
next few years.  Chinese who speak only Chinese will prefer
Baidu’s search capabilities.  Google would do well to buy Baidu
and incorporate it as its unicode language (primarily East and
Southeast Asian languages) search engine.  (Google recently opened
a research center in Shanghai to beef up its unicode search, but it is
currently embroiled in a legal dispute with Microsoft for hiring away
one of its top Chinese executives.) 
 
In short, I plan to buy Baidu.com ADRs shortly after IPO.  I
think it will be a great long-term buy, at least in Internet
time.  I have that same good feeling I had with a couple of other
choices, including Google, Morningstar, and Cogent Technologies. 
But I will not buy Baidu if the price exceeds $25 at open. 
Keep in mind, some risky bets turn sour.  Last week Infospace, a
stock I own, announced its 2Q results.  Although it beat analyst
expectations by 6 cents per share, it slashed its outlook for the rest
of the year dramatically.  The stock dropped 35% in one day. 
I didn’t lose too much because I didn’t have a big stake, but it
reminded me that investing can be risky.  In the case of
Infospace, nothing could have indicated they would revise their
forecast by so much.  Most analysts rated them a buy, and in the
aftermath most analysts changed their ratings from buy to hold or sell
and slashed their price target by about $20.00.  I feel that
Infospace mislead investors and analysts and opened themselves up to
shareholder lawsuits.  If there are any class action lawsuits, I
would definitely sign on.  What Infospace did shafted share
holders.  My recommendation changes to a strong "Don’t buy"
if you don’t own Infospace shares.
 
Here are some research links if you would like to research the upcoming Baidu IPO further:
 
 
In case Internet search is not of interest to you, you could also
invest in Tim Hortons, a staple in Canada.  Known for its donuts,
Tim Hortons is very popular north of the border and in the northern
U.S.  Wendy’s International, parent company of the hamburger
chain, owns Tim Hortons and will spin off up to 18% of Tim Hortons in
an initial public offering.  I haven’t looked at the
company’s financials to see if it will be a good investment. 
Fortunately, it is not a tracking stock, and Tim Hortons has a cult
following similar to Krispy Kreme.  Krispy Kreme, which in my
humble opinion makes much tastier donuts, used to be a darling stock
until it over-expanded and was caught doing shady account.  If Tim
Hortons financials are sound, and it has a realistic expansion plan
into the U.S. and elsewhere, it could be a decent buy.